Is the pandemic nearing the end?

Some charts are signaling the great reopening is picking up steam

Together with:

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Don’t miss out. Invest in Miso Robotics before the opportunity closes Nov. 18.

Is The Pandemic Almost Over?

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2, a pandemic.

It has now been 606 days since the pandemic declaration and we are still in the thick of it. However, there appears to be some hope on the horizon—if I had a nickel for every time I thought that, I’d have a shit ton of nickels.

On Friday, Dr. Gottlieb, who had served as FDA chief under former President Donald Trump, and is currently a Pfizer board member said:

“By Jan. 4, this pandemic may well be over, at least as it relates to the United States, after we get through this delta wave of infection,” Gottlieb said on “Squawk Box.” “We’ll be in a more endemic phase” after that.

Gottlieb referenced Jan. 4 because that’s the new deadline for the Biden administration’s mandate for larger U.S. companies to ensure their employees are fully vaccinated or regularly tested for Covid.

Here is the latest Covid data from the NY Times:

Coronavirus case levels have remained stable in recent days, with around 70,000 new infections reported daily. Hospitalizations and deaths have continued to decline.

The concern from many is with colder weather approaching, people will be spending more time inside and potentially spreading the infection—especially during the holiday season. Last year saw the biggest spike in positive cases during the winter months. Let’s hope this year isn’t the same.

Vaccination status in the U.S. continues to tick higher with nearly 70% of people 12 and older being fully vaccinated. Many are hoping this will slow down the spread of infection during the holiday season.

What are some of the pandemic stocks telling us? Let’s take a look.

Many gym operators were decimated from the government mandated shutdowns since the beginning of the pandemic. This was a boom for home exercising equipment makers Nautilus and Peloton in 2020. Now, it looks like those stocks may have permanently peaked and investors are now shifting their focus back to gym operators.

Planet Fitness is now up 23% YTD, while competitors Nautilus and Peloton are down 43% and 63% respectively. These charts are suggesting people are slowing down their use of their home gym equipment in favor of public workout spaces.

Peloton dropped 35% on Friday to the lowest level since June 2020 after reporting a wider-than-expected quarterly loss. In a letter to shareholders, CEO John Foley said “We anticipated fiscal 2022 would be a very challenging year to forecast, given unusual year-ago comparisons, demand uncertainty amidst re-opening economies, and widely-reported supply chain constraints and commodity cost pressures.”

Another interesting chart below shows the performance of Live Nation and Zoom Video. Zoom was one of the biggest winners of the pandemic but has still had a rough 2021. With workers returning to the office and consumers looking to spend more time outside of their digital bubble, Zoom hasn’t fared so well.

Meanwhile, Live Nation, the company who promotes, operates, and manages ticket sales for live entertainment in the United States and internationally hit another all time high on Friday. It is now +470% from the March 2020 low. People are champing at the bit to see live entertainment—whether it’s a concert, sporting event, or broadway show.

The stock soared on Friday after reporting strong third-quarter earnings. The CEO, Michael Rapino said “Live music roared back over the past quarter with many of our festivals selling out in record time.”

Friday also saw a huge surge for travel-related stocks. This move was attributed to the Pfizer announcement that its experimental antiviral pill for COVID-19 cut rates of hospitalization and death by nearly 90% in high-risk adults.

Obviously we can’t will the virus into non-existence, but with the rise of vaccinations, the current decline of the delta wave, and the investor sentiments around pandemic-related stocks, it appears the market is trying to predict the pandemic may be near the end in the United States. Let’s hope so.

Even if it does end up proving true here in a few months, I’m still not going back into the office.

Performance Update:

Now let’s see how the People’s Portfolio did this week…

The indices rallied again for the 5th straight week in a row. On Wednesday, the Fed announced later this month they will begin slowing down the purchase of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities by $15 billion each month from the current $120 billion per month. The central bank held interest rates steady at near zero, saying that tapering pandemic monetary stimulus should not be viewed as a signal that rate hikes are imminent. The market ripped off of the news.

From the WSJ: The economy churned out 531,000 new jobs last month, the biggest gain in three months, the Labor Department said Friday. Restaurants, consulting firms and factories all boosted hiring, suggesting broad strength across the economy. Nationwide job growth was also stronger in August and September than previously estimated, with new data boosting employment over that period by 235,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell to 4.6% in October from 4.8% a month earlier, and is down by more than half a percentage point in just two months.

Major indices rose to closing records after the jobs report on Friday. The S&P 500 closed at a record for the sixth straight session, extending its winning streak to seven trading days. The Nasdaq also closed at a record for seven straight sessions, riding a ten-trading day winning streak.

On Friday, we voted Airbnb (ABNB) to remain in the portfolio until the last day of the year. Airbnb said it had its “strongest quarter ever” as the travel rebound, which began earlier this year, accelerated in the third quarter. Revenue of $2.2 billion—its highest ever—beat analysts’ estimates for $2.06 billion and was 36% higher than the comparable pre-pandemic period in 2019. Net income was up 280% on the previous year at $834 million, or diluted earnings per share of $1.22, beating the FactSet analysts’ consensus of $0.73 per share.

Coinbase (COIN) is on the chopping block next week for the 3rd time. We’re currently holding onto a -0.49% unrealized loss over the past 29 weeks. While that doesn’t seem great, it’s better than the -38.5% dip we held through. Just getting back to even on this one feels like a big win.

Keep an eye out for the new Twitter poll every Friday. Follow along in real-time with nearly 300,000 others on Public.

Portfolio News Highlights:

The biggest stories affecting our portfolio this week:

  • Airbnb, Expedia Earnings Show Travel Is Back (Barron’s)

  • Penn National (PENN) Drop on Q3 Earnings Miss, Margin Fall (Zacks)

  • What's in Store for Coinbase Global (COIN) in Q3 Earnings? (Zacks)

  • Nvidia Stock Soars On Excitement For Chipmaker's Metaverse Strategy (IBD)

  • Square (SQ) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y (Zacks)

What Else We’re Reading:


  1. The Same Stories, Again and Again - Morgan Housel (Collab Fund)

  2. Mid-Week Earnings Update: 11/3/21: Let's talk Zillow Group and Opendoor Technologies. - Austin Hankwitz (Rate of Return)

  3. The Nothingness of Money - Lawrence Yeo (More To That)

  4. The Shitposting Gods of Silicon Valley - Mike Solana (Pirate Wires)


Need new reading material? Visit my Amazon page for my most purchased book recommendations.

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